Sir Keir Starmer has announced he will step down as Prime Minister, and that a leadership election willtake place to determine the next Labour Party leader and, by extension, Prime Minister. Andy Burnham – the former Mayor of Greater Manchester and new MP for Makerfield – is the favourite to replace him. But what happens next, and what would a Burnham Premiership mean for infrastructure and energy policy in the UK? Below, we cover the key issues you need to know about:
What has happened … and when will a new Prime Minister take over?
Sir Keir Starmer has resigned as Leader of the Labour Party. As a result, he has had to inform the King that he will be stepping down as Prime Minister. By resigning as leader, Starmer has triggered a leadership election within the Labour Party (with the leader becoming, de-facto, the new Prime Minister).
Starmer has called on the National Executive Committee – the Labour Party’s central committee, which provides it with strategic purpose – to set out a timetable to elect a new leader. Nominations will open on 9 July, and the committee will decide in due course when the election is to be completed.
However, Starmer has announced that a new leader will be elected before the end of the summer recess, to provide him or her with time to prepare ahead of the return of Parliament. Electing a new leader before the end of summer recess will also provide them with several weeks to prepare for the Labour Party Conference, which this year takes place from 27 to 30 September.
Who is likely to win any leadership election?
In short, Andy Burnham. The new Makerfield MP – who won his by-election with a surprisingly large 9,000- vote majority – has further enhanced his standing in the Party as the person who can win against Reform and effectively lead Labour into the next General Election.
As of 19 June, The Economist noted that prediction markets give him a 96% chance of becoming the next Prime Minister. All that seemingly stands in the way of Burnham becoming Prime Minister is a gaffe or controversy of such magnitude that Burnham will be required to step down from the race.
Currently, no other candidate enjoys the broad support across the Parliamentary Labour Party that Burnham does, to the extent that imagining any other candidate defeating him is close to impossible.
Over the coming days, the key question is not whether Burnham will enter a leadership election as the favourite, but whether he will face a contest at all. It is very possible he will simply be anointed as leader, having brought in sufficient support from across Labour MPs that other candidates simply fall in behind.
What is the process for electing a Labour leader?
As stated, it is highly likely that Burnham is simply anointed. However, if he isn’t, and multiple candidates stand, there will then be a formal leadership election. LabourList – an influential blog covering the Labour Party – has set out in detail the process for electing a new Leader of the Labour Party.
In short, nominations will open on 9 July, when candidates can put themselves forward for the election. To do so, they will require 20% of elected Labour MPs to back their bid – that is, 81 MPs.
From here, all Party members with six months’ continuous membership prior to the timetable for the ballot being announced are able to vote, putting each candidate in preferential order. Votes are then redistributed based on preferences until one candidate holds a majority.
What would a Burnham government look like?
Speculation around what a Burnham government would look like has already begun.
What seems certain is that Rachel Reeves’s time as Chancellor will be brought to an end. Ed Miliband has long been rumoured to be a big backer of Burnham behind the scenes and has been suggested as a candidate for the role, although that has been accompanied by counter-briefings. In recent days, it has even been suggested that Wes Streeting could take on the position as part of a wider deal, while Yvette Copper’s name has also been mentioned. At this stage, however, it remains speculation.
Louise Haigh, the former Transport Secretary who was forced to resign under Starmer, is widely expected to return to frontline politics and take on an important role in any future cabinet. Similarly, Angela Rayner will also likely return to the Cabinet. Lucy Powell (Labour Deputy Leader and a Manchester MP) has been heavily involved in the Makerfield campaign and is seen as another ally of Burnham who could take on a more senior Cabinet role.
Modern prime ministers, particularly since Liz Truss, have been acutely sensitive to market reactions. One thing we already know is that Burnham is keen to reassure the markets of his economic credibility. It has been widely reported that he has assembled a team of advisors with strong economic backgrounds; these include Andy Haldane (former Bank of England Chief Economist), Richard Hughes (former Chair of the Office for Budget Responsibility) and Jim O’Neill (former Treasury Minister and driver of the Northern Powerhouse).
More widely, Josh Simmons, the former MP for Makerfield who gave up his seat for Burham, is also expected to play a role in the next government. Burnham will also likely lean on some of his closest allies from his time in Manchester, including Kevin Lee, who ran his Mayoral oZice from 2017, and Kate Green, Burnham’s Deputy Mayor for Policing and Crime. Former minister Miatta Fahnbulleh is reported to be working on policy proposals for Team Burnham.
The upshot is a Burnham government will see a host of new faces and policymakers. The Cabinet will look markedly different, and behind the scenes there will be a host of special advisers.
What would a Burnham premiership mean for energy and infrastructure?
If Burnham does reach Number 10, the key question will be the level of continuity with current policy. Policy continuation is highly likely in several areas but, given the necessity to show a clean break from the Starmer premiership, change could come in specific areas.
A critical and early signifier of how Burnham as Prime Minister may diZer from or follow the Starmer Premiership would be the appointment of his first Cabinet. Ministers moving portfolios is a given, with Burnham loyalists likely to be promoted, many current Starmer loyalists demoted to the back benches and others moved around departments. On policy specifically, however, here are the key positions we currently expect a Burnham premiership would focus on in infrastructure and energy:
- ‘Manchesterism’ in action: Given Burnham’s path to Number 10, we already have a strong, realworld indication of what his approach to government might look like. His time as Mayor of Greater Manchester and ‘Manchesterism’ approach is often held up as a success story, not just in securing investment in infrastructure and driving urban regeneration, but in acting as a regional champion for voices that are too often ignored by the political class. From backing the Hillsborough Law to calling out perceived regional inequalities in the Covid-19 response, Burnham has consistently positioned himself as a spokesperson for places that feel left behind by Westminster. That is why, for many on the back benches, Burnham appeals so much. Devolution and the mayoral system have shaped Burnham politically, and the best elements of that model appear to form a blueprint for how he sees the UK working. A more devolved, locally responsive system, with stronger regional accountability, sits at the core of how he sees the world. The challenge for Burnham is whether what has worked in Greater Manchester can be scaled up to the national level.
- Stronger public ownership of utilities, transport and energy: Burnham has long been clear in his view of stronger public ownership of the UK’s utilities, particularly water and energy. He is also keen on transport services coming back under public control; the ‘Bee Network’ bus services in Manchester are the crown jewel of his policy agenda as Mayor and a clear indicator of what Burnham’s fabled Manchesterism looks like in action. Any Burnham government would place a heavy emphasis on bringing currently privatised services in these areas back under public control. To reiterate that point, a policy paper released today by Labour Mainstream – and written by Matthew Lawrence, a policy expert close to Burnham – has set out thinking on this in greater detail, outlining the need for a long-term plan to reassert public control of failing utilities, to avoid soaring costs for the public. Given Lawrence’s proximity to Burnham and the fact that the paper has received praise from advisors to Burnham – such as Miatta Fahnbulleh MP – it is likely to provide an outline of how Burnham will look to use public control as a way to manage utilities.
- Greater emphasis on devolution: Burnham has built his political reputation running a regional political powerhouse, and has talked up the importance of building up power in local and regional government, where decision-makers can be closer to their constituents. Indeed, on the night of his election as Makerfield MP, Burnham was quoted as saying, “People here have voted for change, they have voted for more power for the north and everywhere forgotten by Westminster. Now let’s give that back to them.” Many commentators see this as an overt nod to
pushing the devolution agenda even further ahead than Starmer’s administration did.
- HS2’s northern leg: Burnham has been a vocal critic of the decision to suspend the northern leg of HS2 from Birmingham to Manchester. And just last week, speaking to iNews, Burnham was clear in his view that the northern leg should be resurrected through a ‘Crossrail-style’ funding mechanism. While it’s clear Burnham will be a strong advocate for the further development of the line, the current cost and timeline issues facing the confirmed section of HS2 – at a time of strained public finances – may make the decision politically diZicult if costs on Phase One continue to soar.
- Land value tax: Burnham has shown openness to more radical thinking on tax and economic reform, including long-standing support for a form of land value tax (LVT). The principle behind LVT is that increases in land values, often driven by wider economic activity and public investment rather than the actions of landowners themselves, should contribute more to public revenues. Burnham has argued that land in the UK is relatively undertaxed and has linked reform to wider debates around replacing or reshaping council tax and reducing reliance on taxes on work. However, as previous governments have found out, translating the idea into practice would be politically and administratively complex. In particular, any changes to council tax would be highly sensitive.
- Business rates: Similar to the above, Burnham is said to be eyeing reform to business rates, with concerns about the impact they have on the high street, and on pubs and smaller, place-based businesses. Recent proposals have included relief for smaller firms alongside higher levies on large warehousing assets and vacant properties. This proposal could have a wider impact on business rates for rateable energy and data centre developments.
How should you be preparing for change?
So, what should our clients be doing now?
First, monitor the debate closely. Are there any other candidates coming forward? If not, focus on both the public messaging and the policy detail, as speculation will no doubt intensify on what policies Burnham will pursue within his first 100 days in office.
Second, engage widely with the parliamentary Labour party and those groups that influence Labour policy (before recess, if you can). In particular, backbenchers and those in Burnham’s inner orbit, where influence will matter most.
Finally, get your briefing materials in order and ready to hit the ground running. A new cabinet and wider government means new relationships, new priorities and new ministers to understand. And finally, get ready for Party Conference season, which now looks the perfect opportunity to engage with new ministers and feed into a fresh policy debate.
If you would like to discuss this further, or how Copper can support you prepare for a change in leadership please contact Patrick.traynor@copperconsultancy.com